JOHNNY2FLY RE: NUMBERS
My calculations are as follows:
Based on the assumption that the average shareholder has 2 separate accounts that show up as 2 separate entries on the 60,000 shareholder list, I arrive at some different numbers. If we assume that the 4674 shareholders probably account for around 9350 of the 60,000 on the list, that leaves 50,650 others which divided by two accounts per shareholder, yields about 25,325 other actual shareholders. If we extrapolate at 62.5M shares per shareholder according to the current numbers, we arrive at a high estimate of 1.58 Trillion shares. I'm willing to cut that number by 40% on the safe side based on overreporting and people with smaller share counts being the ones more likely to not report. That STILL puts us at 950 billion shares.
Thus, my estimate is somewhere between 950 billion and 1.58 Trillion which, coincidentally is the range that the last 2 years of trading probably adds up to. Remember that this number is EXCLUSIVE of insiders holdings. As the insider holdings increases, the leverage of short shares to actual float goes up exponentially. Thus, even if UC's holdings were only 10% of the 703 Billion, the NSS could range from 1-2x the actual float. Of course if Urban and insiders still own 90% of the 703B shares, you could theoretically end up with a NSS according to the numbers above of 1.58 Trillion on a float of 70 billion or ROUGHLY 22 TIMES THE FLOAT!!
Much remains to be seen but even a very rough, fairly conservative statistical estimate shows a large NSS. On the high side, the numbers could be staggering. Hopefully we finally get insiders' numbers at the hearing. I can't see any reason why, if that number were favorable to us, that a public hearing wouldn't be the place to FINALLY DISCLOSE THOSE NUMBERS FOR ALL TO HEAR.
Right now we have a rough 8% sampling of all shareholder's holdings. Statistically, based on an actual shareholder base of 30,000 (2 accounts per shareholder for 60,000 total), this should be an EXCELLENT indicator with a very low +/- margin of error. With that many total shareholders and this high a percentage reporting, I am very comfortable with the statistical accuracy of a 62.5M share count per shareholder. And still, even with a 40% reduction of that number, the raw figures are eye-popping.
Personally, I'm not buying the 3 to 6 trillion count others are assessing. I don't think the stock has even traded anyything NEAR that in the past 2 years. But I DO think it has traded in the 1 to 2 trillion share range. And that jibes almost perfectly with my numbers.
I don't think it's any surprise that the SEC managed to select a courtroom that seats only 40 people and is one of the few in that building without video camera capacity. Still, avoid it as they will, the TRANSCRIPT WILL BE AVAILABLE. And I'm guessing Bob Maheu knows a few folks in the media. I'm not without my sense of realism though. We still have an uphill battle in convincing this judge that we are NOT your typical pink sheet screaming "naked short, naked short, naked short". You KNOW she is going to view us that way unless we walk in and drop an A-bomb to prove otherwise. I can think of several A-bombs the company can drop, but since I'm not privy to their info, I can only guess at this point. I just hope our opening words stun the courtroom into silence.
Z
As always, these are my personal opinions.
Hopefully nobody in here is investing anything but "fun" money that they can afford to gamble with.
